MACD Signal-Line Crossover — Disproof verdict

Momentum confirmation — "go long when the MACD line crosses above its signal line, exit when it crosses back." Often presented as the professional upgrade to a plain moving-average cross.

Verdict: dead — grade F, 0 of 2 markets survived, tested on BTCUSDT from 2023-05-16 to 2026-08-30.

At zero cost: +97.6%
With real costs (15bps + 2bps slippage): +71.9%
Out-of-sample: -1.3%
Buy and hold over the same window: +190.9% (the strategy is 118.9 points behind buy and hold)

Rules tested

strategy "MACD Signal-Line Crossover"  (long)
indicators:
  ml = macd_line()
  ms = macd_signal()

entry: when ml crosses above ms
exit:  when ml crosses below ms
# fills next open · fees+slippage on · 70/30 OOS · deflated-Sharpe gate

How this was reconstructed

Literal, at the canonical 12/26/9 settings: long on the bullish signal-line cross, flat on the bearish cross.