3-EMA Stack (8/13/21) — Disproof verdict

"Wait for the EMAs to stack in order, then ride the trend." Presented as a confluence filter that removes the false signals a two-EMA cross produces.

Verdict: dead — grade F, 0 of 2 markets survived, tested on BTCUSDT from 2023-05-16 to 2026-08-30.

At zero cost: +110.5%
With real costs (15bps + 2bps slippage): +91.7%
Out-of-sample: -6.3%
Buy and hold over the same window: +190.9% (the strategy is 99.2 points behind buy and hold)

Rules tested

strategy "3-EMA Stack (8/13/21)"  (long)
indicators:
  e8 = ema(8)
  e13 = ema(13)
  e21 = ema(21)

entry: when e8 > e13 and e13 > e21 and close > e8
exit:  when e8 < e13
# fills next open · fees+slippage on · 70/30 OOS · deflated-Sharpe gate

How this was reconstructed

Long while the stack is in bullish order (8 > 13 > 21) and price holds above the fast EMA; flat once the 8 loses the 13. Taught on intraday charts — tested here on daily bars, where the deep history exists.